Post by jeff on Mar 29, 2009 11:13:56 GMT -5
How much of Fogle Bowl is based on luck?
very little at all (0-14%) - The guy who watched the most college basketball during the year, does the most player research, makes the best bracket projections, generates the best cheat sheet, and makes the smartest picks during the draft will ALWAYS finish in the top 3.
some (15-50%) - There's a little luck inherent in the nature of our fantasy tournament, but there's some simple techniques that one can follow to increase your chances such as:
a lot (51-85%) - Even if you follow all the above guidelines, you can still get unlucky and finish well out of the money. Based on the nature of the NCAA tournament where upsets happen and teams get eliminated (even higher seeds) there's a great amount of luck involved. The fact that the 4th or 5th leading scorer on a team during the regular season and conference tournaments and through 30 games suddenly erupts to outscore the 2nd or 3rd leading scorer on that team during the NCAA tournament is just one example of the inherent vagaries and luck factor. Another: the number of managers was expanded to 11, without considering the repercussions that it forces managers earlier in the draft to either take high scorers on poorly seeded teams or low scorers on good teams. It takes away an element of strategy, forces managers' hands, and only increases the luck factor. The fact that different people place in the money every year and that we have a different winner almost every year show that luck is a huge component of Fogle Bowl.
almost entirely (86-100%) - No matter how much college basketball you watch during the year, even if you make great bracket projections and generate a good cheat sheet, the fact that most Fogle Bowl participants responded in a previous poll that they do very little research shows just how much luck is involved. It's not quite pulling randomly numbered eggs out of a bowl, but for the most part Fogle Bowl is a $20 crap shoot. You can basically ignore college basketball all year long, wait until after Selection Sunday and find a sportswriter's bracket online, use that and scoring averages to make a rudimentary cheat sheet, and have just as good a chance as anyone else.
very little at all (0-14%) - The guy who watched the most college basketball during the year, does the most player research, makes the best bracket projections, generates the best cheat sheet, and makes the smartest picks during the draft will ALWAYS finish in the top 3.
some (15-50%) - There's a little luck inherent in the nature of our fantasy tournament, but there's some simple techniques that one can follow to increase your chances such as:
- Picking guards over big men. They handle the ball more and will take more shots if they are losing.
- Spreading your picks out across all four regions.
- Trying to limit your selection of players to teams seeded higher than 4th
- Trying to limit your selection of players to teams from the big conferences rather than the mid-majors.
- Not picking players whose teams will play each other in the first or second round.
- Picking 3 point shooters, who will shoot more 3 pointers if their team is losing.
- Picking guards who will get to the foul line late in a game (point guards or good foul shooters)
a lot (51-85%) - Even if you follow all the above guidelines, you can still get unlucky and finish well out of the money. Based on the nature of the NCAA tournament where upsets happen and teams get eliminated (even higher seeds) there's a great amount of luck involved. The fact that the 4th or 5th leading scorer on a team during the regular season and conference tournaments and through 30 games suddenly erupts to outscore the 2nd or 3rd leading scorer on that team during the NCAA tournament is just one example of the inherent vagaries and luck factor. Another: the number of managers was expanded to 11, without considering the repercussions that it forces managers earlier in the draft to either take high scorers on poorly seeded teams or low scorers on good teams. It takes away an element of strategy, forces managers' hands, and only increases the luck factor. The fact that different people place in the money every year and that we have a different winner almost every year show that luck is a huge component of Fogle Bowl.
almost entirely (86-100%) - No matter how much college basketball you watch during the year, even if you make great bracket projections and generate a good cheat sheet, the fact that most Fogle Bowl participants responded in a previous poll that they do very little research shows just how much luck is involved. It's not quite pulling randomly numbered eggs out of a bowl, but for the most part Fogle Bowl is a $20 crap shoot. You can basically ignore college basketball all year long, wait until after Selection Sunday and find a sportswriter's bracket online, use that and scoring averages to make a rudimentary cheat sheet, and have just as good a chance as anyone else.
